Lower Electric Reserves a Risk for Texas?
ERCOT’s December Capacity, Demand, and Reserves (CDR) report shows a worrying picture for the Texas power grid. Electric demand is rising faster than new power supply while the number of generators held in reserve keep falling. Solar and battery projects grow fast, yet reserve margins will drop below safe levels in a few years. This trend raises serious doubts about grid strength and the future of cheap electricity in Texas.
Lots of Solar, Few Reserves
Load growth is currently driving the problem. Data centers, a booming population, and power use rise faster than builders can add new plants. And to keep the grid reliable, there needs to be extra generators to provide back up in case one isn’t available. ERCOT’s report shows reserve margins will drop below 12% by 2027. The gird operator also says reserves could turn negative during peak hours by the summer of 2028.
For consumers, the high demand for scarce supply will drive up electricity prices. Texans could see very dark times when demand outstrips power supplies. For example, if too many power plants go off line during a heat wave, people might lose lights and AC. And given Texas summers, that can be dangerous.
High Demand at Sun Down
Experts expect fast growth in solar power and utility scale battery storage over the next few years. Unfortunately, it might not be enough to fill supply gaps when it’s needed most. In fact, it’s timing that creates the problem. Peak demand in Texas hits between 4 p.m. and 9 p.m. That’s right when people return home from work and the sun begins to set. As a result, solar output falls just as home AC units are cranking up all over the state. Similarly, wind often stays weak until later at night.
Batteries do help, however, there needs to be enough of them available to meet Texas power demand during the five hour lull. As a result, developers are playing catch up to get as many batteries in place while demand leaps ahead.
Thermal Power Matters
For now, green power cannot fully cover the most critical peak demand hours of the day. And while new laws let large load center get paid to cut power use in emergencies, the step falls short. The report stresses the need for “dispatchable” power plants. That is, those that can run on demand. Natural gas fired plants can start fast and run for long periods.
Currently, the ERCOT system has grown very tight. But while the state is funding several natural gas plants, switching over to only buiding thermal power plants would cause more problems than answers. For now, Texas still needs a healthy mix of power sources.
How Lower Reserves Affect Your Texas Bills
Heat waves, plant failures, or natural gas price spikes may cause bigger problems than in the past. Building costs also pose a problem. Solar, wind, and battery projects have become cheaper to build than gas plants. But, gas plants provide system reliability. So, those costs will show up in customer bills over time.
Consumers must shop for power with more care than ever. The best way to do that is by tracking market changes and choosing stable priced electricity plans at https://www.powerchoicetexas.org/electricity-rates.